Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:56:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb219…526c crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$250 (+34%) realized +$224 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$164
sports 14% +$130
other 7% +$27
economics 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +45.1% +31.2% 58% 53% +33.5%
≤30d 19 +45.1% +31.2% 58% 53% +33.5%
≤90d 19 +45.1% +31.2% 58% 53% +33.5%
all 19 +45.1% +31.2% 58% 53% +33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.2% 53% +33.5%
10% ← realistic here +18.7% 53% +20.7%
15% +7.2% 53% +9.1%
20% -3.3% 53% -1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$32 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$224
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? No 39¢ 83¢ $25 $53 +$28 (+113%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$64 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$67 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou Jun 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $26 +$113 +442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$106 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$43 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$47 +181%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $25 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$36 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$22 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou SELL The Huns Esports 65¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs GAMEPOINT (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tou BUY The Huns Esports 61¢ $25 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3. BUY 12¢ $26 3h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 22h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 93¢ $41 25h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 57¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $62 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 25h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 26h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? BUY No 39¢ $26 27h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 24¢ $26 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $48 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.72 · official $125.72 · 41 history records