Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb219…68fe other 3 markets active 3d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$25 (-15%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$93
other 42% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +25.9% +13.9% 67% 67% -24.1%
≤30d 3 +25.9% +13.9% 67% 67% -24.1%
≤90d 3 +25.9% +13.9% 67% 67% -24.1%
all 3 +25.9% +13.9% 67% 67% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.9% 67% -24.1%
10% +3.0% 67% -31.4%
15% -7.0% 67% -38.0%
20% -16.1% 33% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$93 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$55 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $28 +$12 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $95 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $28 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 5 history records