Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B2 0xb21e…99bb crypto 742 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,832 (+0%) realized +$1,834 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%727W / 15L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$625per market
Trades / day59.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$683
7 days−$638
14 days−$381
30 days−$560
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,652
world 0% +$21
sports 0% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 3% -10.7%
≤30d 438 +0.2% -9.3% 97% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 742 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 1% -9.3%
all 742 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 1% -9.3%
10% -17.4% 1% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -25.4% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$694) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$188 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1,834
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses727 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)742 / 742
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$625
Trades / day59.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 742 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 37¢ 22¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-42%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees No 49¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $694 −$694 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $248 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $424 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $1,587 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $1,548 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $413 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1,572 +$7 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $1,124 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $981 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $543 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $103 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $528 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,552 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $72 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $248 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $260 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $239 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $847 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $1,563 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $248 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $1,559 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $1,557 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $248 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,552 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $335 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $1,216 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11PM ET Jun 16 $1,548 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1,547 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $1,191 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $938 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $347 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $1,266 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $1,249 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1,538 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $249 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $338 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $479 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $248 +$3 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +88%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $858 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $1,518 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $1,516 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $318 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $244 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $38 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $361 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1,587 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $581 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $239 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $0 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $688 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $66 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $183 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $88 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1,572 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.05 · official $4.05 (match) · 3500 history records