Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:48:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb220…5f71 other 997 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,087 (-2%) realized −$2,371 · open +$284
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate85%711W / 124L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$11,168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$489
world 20% +$2,056
politics 14% +$361
sports 10% +$67
crypto 4% −$10
economics 0% +$9
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$23
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 +21.2% +9.7% 83% 17% -5.1%
≤30d 479 +3.6% -6.3% 85% 17% -7.3%
≤90d 835 +6.8% -3.4% 85% 21% -6.4%
all 835 +6.8% -3.4% 85% 21% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 21% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 13% -15.3%
15% -21.1% 9% -23.5%
20% -28.8% 6% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$11,168
Realized−$2,371
Unrealized+$284
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses711 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions190
Markets (closed)835 / 997
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 190 History 835 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paper Rex be the last APAC team standing at Masters London Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,551 $1,545 −$6 (-0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 91¢ 95¢ $538 $562 +$24 (+5%)
Will s0pp win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $453 $452 −$0 (-0%)
Will Life win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $264 $264 −$1 (-0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 67¢ 83¢ $179 $219 +$41 (+23%)
Will sociablEE win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $215 $215 +$1 (+0%)
Will Killua win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $206 $206 +$0 (+0%)
Will Leviathan win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $198 −$1 (-0%)
Will leaf win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 98¢ $195 $192 −$3 (-1%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 92¢ $153 $182 +$30 (+19%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $171 $178 +$8 (+5%)
Will mada win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $176 $175 −$0 (-0%)
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $160 $173 +$13 (+8%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 91¢ 93¢ $165 $169 +$5 (+3%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 83¢ 90¢ $155 $168 +$13 (+9%)
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $152 $157 +$6 (+4%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 54¢ 97¢ $78 $141 +$63 (+80%)
Will Vasana Montgomery win Love Island USA Season 8? No 97¢ 99¢ $137 $139 +$2 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 79¢ 90¢ $113 $129 +$16 (+14%)
Will yetujey win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $125 $126 +$1 (+1%)
Will SpiritZ1 win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $125 $126 +$1 (+0%)
Will Crws win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 88¢ $135 $120 −$15 (-11%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $110 $118 +$8 (+7%)
Will JitBoyS win the Masters London MVP No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 97¢ 95¢ $116 $114 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? Jun 21 $63 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $60 −$51 -85%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $30 −$28 -94%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 21 $156 +$7 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $138 −$123 -89%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $9 $0 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 $0 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $8 $0 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $15 +$89 +592%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $228 +$221 +97%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $26 +$2 +8%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +9%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $56 +$2 +3%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 19 $294 +$11 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $56 +$46 +82%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $14 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $52 +$5 +9%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Jun 18 $3 +$201 +7262%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 18 $33 +$5 +16%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $30 +$3 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $54 +$18 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $188 −$89 -47%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -11%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +104%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $16 +$1 +8%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $13 +$2 +14%
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 17 $28 +$1 +2%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Albon or Jr.? Jun 17 $286 +$1 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $122 +$216 +177%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $332 +$9 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$3 +13%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will primmie win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $9 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $2 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $162 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $2 1h
Will primmie win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will ZmjjKK win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $24 2h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 59¢ $9 10h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 98¢ $28 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $11 11h
Will s0pp win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $99 19h
Will s0pp win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $33 19h
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL Yes 82¢ $104 23h
Will s0pp win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $17 23h
Will s0pp win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $15 23h
Will leaf win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $12 23h
Will WsLeo win the Masters London MVP SELL No 100¢ $15 23h
Will SpiritZ1 win the Masters London MVP SELL No 100¢ $15 23h
Will valyn win the Masters London MVP SELL No 100¢ $15 23h
Will s0pp win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $33 23h
Will Wo0t win the Masters London MVP SELL No 100¢ $15 23h
Will leaf win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $90 23h
Will keiko win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $20 23h
Will Sayonara win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $11 23h
Will happywei win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $11 23h
Will Derke win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $44 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $228 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $26 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $7 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,168.30 · official $11,206.85 (match) · 3500 history records