Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:29:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb221…a639 crypto 353 markets active 2h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,841 (-13%) realized −$2,829 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate44%154W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$445
14 days−$636
30 days−$982
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$1,184
sports 36% −$2,356
other 5% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -36.4% -42.5% 15% 15% -27.1%
≤30d 74 -33.9% -40.2% 18% 18% -31.0%
≤90d 137 -31.4% -38.0% 22% 22% -36.1%
all 350 -12.3% -20.7% 44% 38% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 38% -23.9%
10% -28.2% 33% -31.2%
15% -35.2% 27% -37.8%
20% -41.5% 21% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$41 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$2,829
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses154 / 196
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions3
Markets (closed)350 / 353
History coverage113d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Yes 15¢ 82¢ $25 $137 +$112 (+447%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 67¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $36 −$16 -44%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $70 +$44 +62%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$6 -37%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $23 +$147 +650%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $20 −$19 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $23 −$3 -12%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $41 −$2 -4%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $33 −$33 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $121 +$23 +19%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 +$93 +605%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $112 −$41 -37%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$7 -48%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 −$2 -14%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $31 +$143 +464%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $63 −$62 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 +$48 +105%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -17%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $81 −$33 -41%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $61 −$26 -42%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $107 +$110 +103%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $233 −$54 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $105 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $36 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 65¢ $114 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 39¢ $70 3h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 10h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 12¢ $20 10h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 12h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $23 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $23 12h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $23 12h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $23 12h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 35h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 55¢ $39 35h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $41 35h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 35h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 35h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 35h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $33 35h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 35h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 35h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 35h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 35h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Uzbekistan 86¢ $99 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.79 · official $125.96 · 1098 history records