Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb221…c19d sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,799 (-26%) realized −$1,799 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%3W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$458per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$922
sports 26% −$1,099
crypto 12% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -50.4% -55.1% 18% 18% -67.5%
≤30d 14 -33.2% -39.5% 21% 21% -36.2%
≤90d 14 -33.2% -39.5% 21% 21% -36.2%
all 14 -33.2% -39.5% 21% 21% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 21% -36.2%
10% -45.3% 21% -42.3%
15% -50.6% 21% -47.9%
20% -55.4% 21% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$202 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$566
Realized−$1,799
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses3 / 11
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage7d
Avg bet$458
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $566 $566 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 21 $17 −$1 -5%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 21 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$104 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $347 −$347 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $905 −$905 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$27 +92%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $713 −$28 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $234 +$147 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $208 +$192 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $128 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,798 −$16 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $567 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 53¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $57 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL 39¢ $685 4h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY 39¢ $713 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $233 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $50 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $49 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $3 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $39 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $234 33h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $96 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $6 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $159 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $239 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $17 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $68 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $347 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $16 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $83 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $56 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $905 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.88 · official $565.88 (match) · 85 history records