Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B2
0xb223…3772
sports · 162 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$343 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$320 · open +$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,923
Realized+$320
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses35 / 62
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions81
Markets (closed)97 / 162
History coverage16d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day211.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 81 History 97 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days+$268
14 days+$315
30 days+$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $200 $224 +$24 (+12%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 56¢ 92¢ $55 $91 +$36 (+65%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 82¢ $75 $90 +$14 (+19%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 46¢ 80¢ $49 $88 +$38 (+77%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $58 $76 +$18 (+30%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 63¢ 64¢ $49 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 28¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 62¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 78¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 38¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 34¢ $49 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 62¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 46¢ $49 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 75¢ 96¢ $32 $42 +$9 (+29%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-6%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 22¢ 20¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-7%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 38¢ $43 $37 −$6 (-13%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 64¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 14¢ 14¢ $37 $36 −$2 (-4%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $27 $36 +$9 (+32%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 34¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+5%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+7%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 14¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-12%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 42¢ 42¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - ESL Challenger Jun 12 $11 −$3 -23%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs Alzon - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs Alzon - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -65%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Counter-Strike: ZOTIX vs SINQU (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Se Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs MAGICOS - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Game Handicap: NS.EA (-1.5) vs Gen.G Global Academy (+1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 11 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $33 −$3 -8%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -5%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $34 −$33 -96%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA Jun 08 $26 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 174.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 +$48 +95%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $51 +$41 +81%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 05 $37 −$37 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1 +$1 +69%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $1 +$1 +93%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $135 +$356 +264%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $11 $0 -2%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Berrettini vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 03 $50 $0 -1%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Berrettini vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $22 −$22 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $1 +$9 +777%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $51 +$46 +91%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $31 +$21 +66%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $6 +$22 +365%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$79 +3936%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $87 −$9 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $50 +$87 +172%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs LOS (+1.5) Jun 01 $1 +$1 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$30
sports 39% −$137
crypto 7% +$372
world 5% +$142
politics 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $1 3h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY B8 63¢ $1 3h
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY B8 63¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $1 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 74¢ $1 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 66¢ $1 4h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 65¢ $1 4h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 65¢ $8 4h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $1 16h
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY No 42¢ $1 16h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 14¢ $1 16h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 14¢ $1 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 17h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 57¢ $1 18h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $1 18h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 19h
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $0 21h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $1 23h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $1 23h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $1 23h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $1 23h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 43¢ $1 23h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 29¢ $6 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -29.7% -36.4% 25% 19% +38.0%
≤30d 97 +21.8% +10.2% 36% 34% +7.5%
≤90d 97 +21.8% +10.2% 36% 34% +7.5%
all 97 +21.8% +10.2% 36% 34% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover211.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.2% 34% +7.5%
10% ← realistic here -0.3% 34% -2.8%
15% -10.0% 30% -12.2%
20% -18.8% 27% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,923.22 · official $1,922.96 (match) · 3500 history records