Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B2 0xb225…d4a1 crypto 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,007 (+7%) realized +$1,545 · open −$538
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%43W / 57L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$567
7 days−$911
14 days−$129
30 days+$856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$10
world 8% +$1,014
other 8% −$173
finance 4% −$456
weather 1% −$100
tech 1% +$8
economics 1% +$25
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -37.3% -43.3% 33% 28% -33.9%
≤30d 100 +10.6% +0.1% 43% 37% -6.0%
≤90d 100 +10.6% +0.1% 43% 37% -6.0%
all 100 +10.6% +0.1% 43% 37% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 37% -6.0%
10% -9.5% 31% -15.0%
15% -18.2% 29% -23.2%
20% -26.3% 26% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$82 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$2,434
Realized+$1,545
Unrealized−$538
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses43 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions27
Markets (closed)100 / 127
History coverage26d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 31¢ 38¢ $200 $246 +$46 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $200 $222 +$22 (+11%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 44¢ 77¢ $100 $174 +$74 (+75%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $135 $130 −$5 (-3%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $200 $129 −$71 (-35%)
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? No 67¢ 84¢ $100 $125 +$25 (+25%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 88¢ 97¢ $106 $118 +$12 (+11%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 73¢ 84¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 27¢ 29¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Japan declassifies new UFO files in 2026? No 89¢ 86¢ $110 $107 −$3 (-3%)
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? No 80¢ 81¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 80¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 69¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Up 29¢ 18¢ $100 $63 −$37 (-37%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 65¢ 3¢ $300 $14 −$286 (-95%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $100 $8 −$92 (-92%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-25%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 32¢ 2¢ $100 $5 −$95 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $307 −$261 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $194 +$124 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $304 +$64 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$63 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$97 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$123 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $316 −$112 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $206 −$37 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $207 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $720 +$56 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $104 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $206 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 08 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 08 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 07 $103 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 07 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 07 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 07 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$76 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 07 $103 +$73 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 07 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 07 $106 +$488 +461%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$173 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 07 $103 +$68 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 06 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 06 $102 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 06 $209 −$73 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 06 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 06 $105 −$100 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $46 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $319 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $92 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 27¢ $104 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? SELL No 81¢ $120 10h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $103 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 24h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $106 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $165 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $103 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 25h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $105 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $102 29h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $106 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,433.86 · official $2,433.89 (match) · 263 history records