Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb225…3d54 sports 32 markets active 5h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9,100 (+7%) realized +$9,100 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate25%8W / 24L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,285per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1,178est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32,734
7 days+$29,630
14 days+$9,106
30 days+$9,106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$8,481
sports 44% +$566
politics 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -16.0% -24.0% 33% 33% +14.9%
≤30d 27 -35.9% -42.0% 26% 26% -3.5%
≤90d 27 -35.9% -42.0% 26% 26% -3.5%
all 32 -36.6% -42.6% 25% 22% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.6% 22% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -48.1% 22% -12.8%
15% -53.1% 22% -21.2%
20% -57.7% 19% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$5,850) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -39% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10,403 vs −$3,091 · ×3.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,178
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage224d
Avg bet$4,285
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8,577 +$36,187 +422%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $6,811 −$6,810 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,343 −$3,343 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 26 $3,130 −$3,130 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $6,160 −$6,160 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $17,092 +$14,901 +87%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11,875 +$5,089 +43%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $4,750 −$4,750 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $3,680 −$3,680 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $7,149 +$7,036 +98%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $3,573 −$3,540 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5,901 −$5,850 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9,870 +$6,580 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $5,100 +$9,900 +194%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4,692 −$4,692 -100%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4,759 −$4,759 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,518 −$2,518 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3,450 −$3,450 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3,360 −$3,360 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2,973 +$3,527 +119%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,091 −$2,091 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,930 −$2,930 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 16 $176 −$3 -2%
Will Israel vs. Moldova end in a draw? Nov 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Jets vs. Patriots: O/U 42.5 Nov 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Stars vs. Canadiens Nov 14 $57 +$2 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 13 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 10¢ $1,717 4h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 10¢ $88 4h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 10¢ $0 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,413 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $64 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $64 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $64 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $64 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $64 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $64 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $64 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $64 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $245 5h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 13¢ $0 5h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 13¢ $0 5h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 13¢ $1 5h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 13¢ $1 5h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 13¢ $6 5h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 13¢ $7 5h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 13¢ $3 5h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 13¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 625 history records