Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb225…4bcb other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$4
other 12% $0
tech 3% +$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 3% −$2
politics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 0% -5.3%
≤30d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 0% -10.5%
all 31 -8.2% -17.0% 42% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 3% -10.6%
10% -24.9% 3% -19.2%
15% -32.2% 0% -27.0%
20% -38.8% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage471d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 81¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $176 −$3 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $54 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $59 −$3 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 10 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $2 $0 -9%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 05 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $5 $0 -1%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 04 $1 $0 +8%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 04 $1 $0 -3%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 03 $9 $0 +1%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 24 $7 $0 +6%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in his first 100 days? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 23 $8 $0 -5%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 21 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $1 $0 -2%
Will Kentucky win the SEC Tournament? Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 13 $12 $0 +1%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $14 −$2 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $10 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $10 13h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $36 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $11 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 80¢ $46 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $45 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $22 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $46 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $4 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $45 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $8 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $23 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $21 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $10 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $54 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $54 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 19d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.98 · official $51.87 (match) · 128 history records