Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb227…ef1e weather 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-2%) realized −$49 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate64%56W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$27
14 days−$15
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -49.4% -54.2% 40% 33% -15.6%
≤30d 61 -20.6% -28.2% 59% 30% -13.3%
≤90d 88 -12.4% -20.7% 64% 31% -12.2%
all 88 -12.4% -20.7% 64% 31% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 31% -12.2%
10% -28.3% 16% -20.6%
15% -35.2% 10% -28.3%
20% -41.6% 6% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses56 / 32
Open positions3
Markets (closed)88 / 91
History coverage54d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? No 81¢ 84¢ $28 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? No 76¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $24 −$19 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$15 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $42 +$8 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 +$12 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $210 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $108 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $151 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $110 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$6 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$3 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$9 +191%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $142 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $135 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $10 +$4 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $14 +$7 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $45 −$4 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $103 −$46 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 3? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $27 −$27 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $9 −$8 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $47 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? SELL No 21¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $17 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $19 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $5 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 76¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 72¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 24¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 31¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 65¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $21 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.99 · official $34.99 (match) · 346 history records