Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb229…8e56 world 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$876 (-6%) realized −$1,001 · open +$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 41L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$103
14 days−$103
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$1,091
other 20% +$115
sports 5% −$455
politics 4% −$70
crypto 3% −$106
tech 2% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -37.3% -43.3% 50% 50% -29.7%
≤30d 4 -37.3% -43.3% 50% 50% -29.7%
≤90d 34 -37.5% -43.4% 35% 32% -22.3%
all 67 -22.0% -29.4% 39% 33% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 33% -22.5%
10% -36.2% 24% -29.9%
15% -42.3% 19% -36.7%
20% -48.0% 12% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$85 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$3,029
Realized−$1,001
Unrealized+$125
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions18
Markets (closed)67 / 86
History coverage551d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 78¢ $670 $731 +$60 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $500 $450 −$50 (-10%)
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $391 $317 −$74 (-19%)
Will England score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $133 $227 +$94 (+71%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $150 $200 +$50 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $160 $192 +$32 (+20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $153 $172 +$19 (+12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $100 $152 +$52 (+52%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $111 $131 +$20 (+18%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Sweden 68¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $91 $89 −$2 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $84 $60 −$23 (-28%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-4%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $62 $36 −$25 (-41%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $28 $21 −$6 (-23%)
Will Declan Rice win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 20 $205 +$42 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $85 +$26 +30%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $134 −$130 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $51 −$6 -12%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $41 −$40 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $81 −$30 -37%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 06 $92 −$40 -44%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) May 06 $21 −$20 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $57 +$42 +73%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 27 $120 −$120 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Apr 27 $130 −$130 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 27 $68 −$68 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 27 $100 −$38 -38%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Apr 25 $27 −$26 -98%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 25 $65 −$64 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $65 −$64 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $4 +$5 +104%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 25 $80 +$40 +49%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $131 +$174 +133%
Will Iran strike UAE again in March? Apr 25 $371 +$134 +36%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 25 $408 +$192 +47%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $109 −$107 -98%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Apr 04 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Iran strike Yemen in March? Apr 04 $192 +$8 +4%
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026? Apr 02 $124 −$124 -100%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31? Apr 01 $80 +$58 +73%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $186 +$182 +98%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 10, 2026? Mar 25 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026? Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran strike Lebanon in March? Mar 25 $979 −$91 -9%
Will Iran strike Jordan in March? Mar 16 $264 +$107 +40%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $540 −$285 -53%
Will Iran strike Jordan in March? Mar 09 $162 −$46 -28%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 09 $196 −$96 -49%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $1,470 −$82 -6%
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $53 +$9 +16%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $162 −$13 -8%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 03 $505 −$5 -1%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $15 −$14 -93%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $81 +$66 +81%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 02 $80 +$28 +35%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 01 $66 +$8 +13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 01 $700 +$103 +15%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Feb 28 $819 −$490 -60%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jun 12 $67 +$33 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 48¢ $33 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 48¢ $121 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? SELL No 48¢ $93 2h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $27 2h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 2h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 3h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $54 4h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $53 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $34 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $60 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $59 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,028.58 · official $3,077.02 · 469 history records