Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

B2 0xb22b…e184 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$16 (-8%) realized −$16 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip

Net edge-66%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%1W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit17%portable

Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-65.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-61.9%	-65.6%	25%	25%	-17.0%
≤30d	4	-61.9%	-65.6%	25%	25%	-17.0%
≤90d	4	-61.9%	-65.6%	25%	25%	-17.0%
all	4	-61.9%	-65.6%	25%	25%	-17.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-65.6%	25%	-17.0%
10%	-68.9%	0%	-25.0%
15%	-71.9%	0%	-32.2%
20%	-74.6%	0%	-38.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -62% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$8 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.33 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$100

Realized−$16

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses1 / 3

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 6

History coverage3d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	85¢	86¢	$50	$50	+$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	85¢	84¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$75	+$8	+11%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Jun 26	$10	−$6	-58%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$10	−$8	-81%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$50	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	85¢	$50	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	90¢	$75	12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	SELL Yes	7¢	$4	12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	12h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	72¢	$10	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.00 · official $100.00 (match) · 9 history records