Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B2 0xb22f…a746 crypto 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$25 (-22%) realized −$21 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$21
other 18% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +30.1% +17.7% 67% 67% -30.7%
≤30d 3 +30.1% +17.7% 67% 67% -30.7%
≤90d 3 +30.1% +17.7% 67% 67% -30.7%
all 3 +30.1% +17.7% 67% 67% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 67% -30.7%
10% +6.5% 67% -37.3%
15% -3.8% 67% -43.4%
20% -13.2% 33% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$52 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 30 $14 +$20 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $52 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.90 · official $16.90 (match) · 8 history records