Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb22f…8339 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$855 (-23%) realized −$844 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$1,183
sports 43% +$250
crypto 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -51.1% -55.8% 17% 10% -33.1%
≤30d 48 -51.1% -55.8% 17% 10% -33.1%
≤90d 48 -51.1% -55.8% 17% 10% -33.1%
all 48 -51.1% -55.8% 17% 10% -33.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.8% 10% -33.1%
10% -60.0% 6% -39.5%
15% -63.9% 6% -45.3%
20% -67.4% 6% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$33 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$844
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 40
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage6d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$21 -66%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -96%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,015 −$406 -40%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,015 +$186 +18%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $23 −$22 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $206 −$116 -56%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $31 −$28 -88%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $218 −$214 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $203 +$32 +16%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $203 +$20 +10%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $72 +$76 +106%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $46 −$37 -80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $21 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $16 −$6 -38%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $8 +$55 +704%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +242%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$6 -78%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $8 −$5 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 10h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 10h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 11h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 11h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 51¢ $609 21h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,015 21h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 26h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 26h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 30h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 30h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $23 30h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,015 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 14¢ $90 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 30h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 30¢ $206 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 31h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $67 37h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 37h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 66¢ $218 43h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 45h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $203 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $222 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 89¢ $203 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.43 · official $44.43 (match) · 86 history records