Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:29:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb231…7a4e weather 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$170 (+3%) realized +$169 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate50%104W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$165
14 days−$137
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$22
finance 24% +$237
other 14% −$204
weather 5% −$7
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% −$60
politics 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +549.1% +487.2% 43% 43% -7.0%
≤30d 68 +49.7% +35.4% 49% 40% -15.0%
≤90d 152 +21.4% +9.8% 56% 24% -12.6%
all 210 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 21% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.3% 21% -13.7%
10% -0.3% 16% -22.0%
15% -9.9% 15% -29.5%
20% -18.8% 13% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses104 / 106
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions2
Markets (closed)210 / 212
History coverage114d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 63¢ 64¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 +$26 +129%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $22 −$16 -74%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $105 +$201 +192%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $126 +$6 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $21 −$2 -11%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $23 −$22 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $23 −$22 -98%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $20 +$47 +239%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $57 +$45 +79%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $36 +$2 +6%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $49 −$43 -88%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $10 +$20 +197%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $11 −$11 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$23 +76%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $15 +$16 +105%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $55 +$46 +83%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $59 +$38 +65%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $40 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $145 −$142 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $193 −$190 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $60 −$59 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $130 +$102 +78%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $73 +$39 +53%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $50 +$51 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $70 −$69 -99%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $15 −$14 -98%
Will M80 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $50 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $32 +$19 +60%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$2 +100%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $25 +$25 +101%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $113 +$89 +78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $125 +$77 +61%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $36 +$14 +40%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $170 +$154 +91%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 2? Jun 02 $64 −$61 -95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $45 −$44 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 02 $31 −$3 -8%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $25 +$26 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $61 −$60 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $246 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $51 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 60¢ $51 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 64¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $20 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $9 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 5¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 12¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 13¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 13¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 31¢ $71 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 31¢ $71 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 23¢ $105 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 16¢ $49 5d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 8¢ $103 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 13¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 5¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 5¢ $0 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 95¢ $107 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $103 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Monte 28¢ $25 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 25¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 23¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Aurora Gaming 15¢ $18 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 16¢ $21 6d
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur BUY Benjamin Bonzi 22¢ $23 7d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 20¢ $2 7d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 20¢ $21 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.15 · official $201.15 (match) · 1174 history records