Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:27:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B2 0xb234…5afb crypto 19 markets active 15h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$96 (+62%) realized +$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$45
sports 25% +$52
crypto 23% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +52.3% +37.8% 58% 58% +45.1%
≤30d 19 +52.3% +37.8% 58% 58% +45.1%
≤90d 19 +52.3% +37.8% 58% 58% +45.1%
all 19 +52.3% +37.8% 58% 58% +45.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.8% 58% +45.1%
10% +24.6% 58% +31.2%
15% +12.6% 53% +18.5%
20% +1.5% 42% +6.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.52 per $1 lost it wins $4.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -10%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1 +$7 +650%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +26%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$20 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 +$26 +47%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$19 +129%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 +$19 +370%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 41h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $3 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $15 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 99¢ $34 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 87¢ $24 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $16 3d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $39 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $12 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 44¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records