Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:50:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb237…3563 other 9 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-21%) realized −$35 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$36
tech 4% −$5
sports 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +28.0% +15.8% 38% 38% -30.9%
≤30d 8 +28.0% +15.8% 38% 38% -30.9%
≤90d 8 +28.0% +15.8% 38% 38% -30.9%
all 8 +28.0% +15.8% 38% 38% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.8% 38% -30.9%
10% +4.7% 25% -37.5%
15% -5.4% 12% -43.5%
20% -14.7% 12% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $56 +$18 +32%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$6 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$5 +18%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 40h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 2d
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 95¢ $55 2d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 2d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2d
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 61¢ $18 2d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 10¢ $1 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 12¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.17 · official $9.17 (match) · 18 history records