Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:31:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb238…4961 sports 529 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,305 (-8%) realized −$3,317 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%264W / 264L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day34.1pace
Fees−$613est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$579
7 days−$788
14 days−$592
30 days−$3,691
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$3,490
crypto 4% −$31
other 0% −$115
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -14.7% -22.8% 45% 38% -29.2%
≤30d 214 -15.8% -23.8% 47% 37% -22.3%
≤90d 528 -10.1% -18.7% 50% 40% -17.6%
all 528 -10.1% -18.7% 50% 40% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 40% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 30% -25.5%
15% -33.5% 25% -32.7%
20% -40.1% 19% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$56 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$3,317
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses264 / 264
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$613
Open positions1
Markets (closed)528 / 529
History coverage63d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day34.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 528 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Plovdiv: Alexander Vasilev vs Niels Visker Niels Visker 34¢ 38¢ $116 $128 +$12 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 23 $5 +$5 +101%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5 Jun 23 $27 +$24 +88%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $603 −$477 -79%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $148 −$146 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $127 −$127 -100%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 22 $73 −$71 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $103 +$49 +48%
Set Handicap: Sakamoto (-1.5) vs Matusevich (+1.5) Jun 22 $33 +$19 +57%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $115 +$60 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $107 −$77 -72%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $29 −$28 -98%
Set Handicap: Tomljanovic (-1.5) vs Erjavec (+1.5) Jun 21 $614 +$507 +83%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $6 −$3 -56%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $59 +$101 +170%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $64 +$13 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $155 +$76 +49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $45 +$55 +122%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $120 −$10 -8%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1 +$1 +134%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +11%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5) Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $125 −$125 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $241 −$186 -77%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $64 +$136 +212%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $62 +$8 +13%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $41 +$59 +144%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $31 +$21 +69%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $69 −$23 -34%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $154 +$68 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $485 −$205 -42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$25 -49%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Seattle Storm 47¢ $43 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm SELL Dallas Wings 11¢ $83 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 67¢ $30 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 67¢ $33 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 58¢ $101 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 67¢ $105 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 75¢ $24 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 75¢ $14 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 75¢ $15 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 75¢ $38 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm BUY Dallas Wings 75¢ $243 1h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 2h
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 53¢ $27 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $148 10h
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $73 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $127 13h
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 67¢ $103 14h
Plovdiv: Alexander Vasilev vs Niels Visker BUY Niels Visker 34¢ $118 15h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 4¢ $1 20h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 4¢ $4 20h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 4¢ $0 20h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 4¢ $0 20h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 4¢ $2 20h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 2¢ $8 20h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 2¢ $0 20h
Set Handicap: Sakamoto (-1.5) vs Matusevich (+1.5) BUY Matusevich 63¢ $33 20h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 74¢ $104 20h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 74¢ $92 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.04 · official $128.04 (match) · 2507 history records