Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb23a…c9d8 politics 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate13%3W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$4
sports 22% −$1
economics 22% −$1
other 15% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -3.5% -12.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 9% 9% -9.7%
all 23 -4.5% -13.6% 13% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 4% -9.8%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses3 / 20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage235d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $209 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -16%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $198 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -18%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $673 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +11%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 09 $15 −$12 -80%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Jan 21 $484 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $485 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 16 $485 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $486 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 14 $486 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $487 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 12 $487 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 09 $488 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jan 09 $15 $0 +1%
Interstellar object confirmed aliens? Dec 22 $19 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 52m
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $2 59m
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 2h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 5h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 8h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 8h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $2 15h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 18h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 21h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 23h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 26h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 27h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 27h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 30h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 30h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 33h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 36h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 36h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 37h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 43h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 44h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 2d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 133d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 140d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 140d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $409.83 · official $409.83 (match) · 71 history records