Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb23a…16a9 world 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 91d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized +$707 · open −$651
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$803per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$6,510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$659
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 7 -3.4% -12.6% 71% 57% -9.8%
all 7 -3.4% -12.6% 71% 57% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 57% -9.8%
10% -21.0% 29% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$6,510
Realized+$707
Unrealized−$651
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage91d
Avg bet$803
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 58¢ 52¢ $7,141 $6,487 −$655 (-9%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 86¢ 99¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran strike Iraq again in March? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 07 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Iran strike Bahrain again in March? Apr 03 $8 +$1 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $10 +$1 +14%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 01 $10 +$3 +30%
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31? Apr 01 $20 +$5 +24%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 22 $10 −$2 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $100 1m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $50 6m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $40 37m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $30 40m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $50 42m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 51¢ $100 43m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $30 51m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $20 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $30 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $30 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $50 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $50 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $100 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $100 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $100 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $50 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $50 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $174 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $200 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $200 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $688 34h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $688 34h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $688 43h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $688 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $689 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $1,724 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $222 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $40 60d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $10 61d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $10 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,509.62 · official $6,509.62 (match) · 54 history records