Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb23b…503f crypto 385 markets active 0h ago coverage 75d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,146 (-15%) realized −$11,130 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%89W / 294L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Fees−$530est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$229
14 days−$339
30 days−$3,908
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$1,300
crypto 30% −$1,366
world 18% −$551
politics 8% −$3,639
other 6% −$585
finance 2% −$194
tech 2% −$304
weather 1% $0
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -11.1% -19.6% 8% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 106 -15.5% -23.5% 5% 1% -40.7%
≤90d 383 -13.5% -21.7% 23% 15% -19.3%
all 383 -13.5% -21.7% 23% 15% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 15% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 11% -27.0%
15% -36.0% 7% -34.1%
20% -42.3% 5% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$45 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$11,130
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses89 / 294
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$530
Open positions2
Markets (closed)383 / 385
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 383 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 68¢ 68¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Up 62¢ 100¢ $11 $18 +$7 (+60%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Down 31¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 15 $27 −$5 -18%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $99 −$5 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $425 −$31 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $147 −$3 -2%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 13 $24 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Jun 13 $21 −$1 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $88 −$88 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $190 +$10 +5%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $92 +$6 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $266 −$10 -4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $14 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $191 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $325 −$6 -2%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 12 $22 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 11 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $213 −$27 -13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $88 −$4 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $216 −$4 -2%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 11 $22 −$2 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 11 $32 $0 -1%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 11 $14 $0 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 11 $15 $0 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $21 −$4 -18%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $60 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will USD reach 2.0M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 10 $150 −$1 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 10 $436 −$16 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $22 −$1 -5%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 10 $3 $0 -4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $25 −$2 -7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -84%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $16 −$2 -14%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $21 −$1 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 09 $5 −$3 -54%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 09 $7 −$3 -47%
LA Mayoral Election: Recount of 1st Round? Jun 09 $6 −$3 -55%
Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2 Jun 08 $75 −$5 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $150 1m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 20¢ $11 41m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 20¢ $11 42m
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 1h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 76¢ $2 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 76¢ $2 1h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 2h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 2h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2h
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL Yes 21¢ $11 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 22¢ $3 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 22¢ $9 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $3 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $3 4h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 62¢ $4 4h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Up 62¢ $7 4h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Down 31¢ $17 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 16¢ $23 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 19¢ $27 5h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 19¢ $11 6h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 19¢ $10 6h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $13 6h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $30 6h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $45 6h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 17¢ $9 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.28 · official $169.30 (match) · 3500 history records