trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 3 | +4.8% | -5.2% | 100% | 0% | -5.0% |
| ≤90d | 7 | +5.0% | -5.0% | 100% | 14% | -7.3% |
| all | 22 | +2.1% | -7.6% | 100% | 5% | -8.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.6% | 5% | -8.0% |
| 10% | -16.4% | 0% | -16.8% |
| 15% | -24.5% | 0% | -24.9% |
| 20% | -31.9% | 0% | -32.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? | No | 91¢ | 92¢ | $47 | $48 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | No | 94¢ | 99¢ | $8 | $8 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Jun 10 | $54 | +$1 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $53 | +$1 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $61 | +$6 | +10% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | May 13 | $52 | +$8 | +16% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | May 05 | $52 | +$1 | +1% |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | May 03 | $51 | +$1 | +2% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Mar 30 | $909 | +$11 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 23-March 1? | Mar 29 | $46 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 27? | Mar 01 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? | Feb 27 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 26? | Jan 27 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 November 24-30? | Dec 26 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? | Nov 29 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? | Oct 29 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? | Aug 26 | $110 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? | Jul 25 | $110 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | Jun 24 | $110 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? | May 30 | $98 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12? | Apr 13 | $107 | +$3 | +2% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Jan 21 | $23 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? | Jan 21 | $39 | +$1 | +2% |
| US inauguration on January 20? | Jan 21 | $44 | +$1 | +1% |