Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb240…2c57 crypto 11 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-38%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -73% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$25
other 7% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-75.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -73.0% -75.6% 18% 9% -54.1%
≤30d 11 -73.0% -75.6% 18% 9% -54.1%
≤90d 11 -73.0% -75.6% 18% 9% -54.1%
all 11 -73.0% -75.6% 18% 9% -54.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -75.6% 9% -54.1%
10% ← realistic here -77.9% 9% -58.5%
15% -80.0% 0% -62.5%
20% -82.0% 0% -66.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -73% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records