Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B2 0xb240…df51 sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,710 (-42%) realized −$10,710 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$479per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$436
7 days+$436
14 days+$436
30 days−$3,777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$13,909
crypto 26% +$3,037
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +1.4% -8.2% 53% 53% +4.0%
≤30d 40 -4.0% -13.1% 48% 48% -32.2%
≤90d 46 -16.5% -24.5% 41% 41% -54.2%
all 53 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 45% -48.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 45% -48.6%
10% -26.9% 45% -53.5%
15% -34.0% 45% -58.0%
20% -40.5% 43% -62.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$625) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$624 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,710
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage142d
Avg bet$479
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $404 +$416 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $103 +$93 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $310 −$300 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $290 +$259 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $207 −$200 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $207 +$174 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $248 +$407 +164%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $209 −$200 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $207 +$185 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $187 −$187 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $96 −$93 -96%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5 Jun 26 $24 +$13 +53%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 Jun 26 $220 +$107 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $201 −$195 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 06 $948 −$936 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 122.5 Jun 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 06 $741 −$731 -99%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 05 $724 −$717 -99%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 05 $553 +$489 +88%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce: O/U 159.5 Jun 05 $100 +$98 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $628 +$747 +119%
Bilbao Basket vs. Valencia: O/U 174.5 Jun 05 $374 −$369 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 05 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $418 +$717 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 05 $418 −$418 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $625 +$850 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 05 $311 +$319 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 05 $103 +$84 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 05 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $128 +$178 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 05 $311 +$380 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 05 $309 +$209 +68%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 04 $1,792 −$1,777 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 04 $944 −$944 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 04 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 31 $209 +$194 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 31 $660 −$651 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5 May 31 $406 −$400 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 107.5 Apr 20 $2,641 −$2,633 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5 Apr 18 $1,329 −$1,325 -100%
Hornets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 106.5 Apr 17 $1,766 −$1,740 -98%
LaMelo Ball: Assists O/U 7.5 Apr 17 $910 −$897 -99%
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 218.5 Apr 17 $500 −$492 -98%
Hornets vs. Magic: O/U 217.5 Apr 17 $200 −$197 -99%
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5 Feb 24 $313 +$270 +86%
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 229.5 Feb 24 $300 +$312 +104%
Kings vs. Grizzlies: O/U 234.5 Feb 24 $392 +$222 +57%
Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5 Feb 10 $274 −$274 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $182 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $300 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $206 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $290 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $207 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $44 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $380 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $656 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $39 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $209 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $209 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $207 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $96 4h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5 SELL Over 99¢ $36 4h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 SELL Over 99¢ $327 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $83 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 4h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 64¢ $24 5h
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 66¢ $220 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $82 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 16h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Over 58¢ $948 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 122.5 BUY Over 9¢ $14 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 150 history records