Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B2 0xb241…902c crypto 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$360 (+2%) realized +$363 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%61W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days−$229
14 days−$1,536
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$392
other 6% +$378
sports 1% +$130
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$4
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +35.3% +22.4% 34% 30% -15.1%
≤30d 138 +18.5% +7.2% 44% 41% -9.0%
≤90d 138 +18.5% +7.2% 44% 41% -9.0%
all 138 +18.5% +7.2% 44% 41% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.2% 41% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -3.1% 39% -17.7%
15% -12.4% 37% -25.7%
20% -21.0% 34% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$93 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$363
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses61 / 77
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)138 / 145
History coverage16d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? No 39¢ 48¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$208 +1352%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 +$240 +2330%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$65 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $63 −$60 -96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$49 +474%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$75 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$62 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $188 −$180 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $150 −$145 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $135 −$26 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $199 −$19 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $145 +$133 +92%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $188 −$180 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $217 +$222 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $271 −$197 -73%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $237 +$323 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $168 −$65 -39%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $224 +$25 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $94 +$166 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$4 +7%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $50 −$22 -45%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 16h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $74 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 18h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 18h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $42 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $42 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $62 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $73 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $32 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $63 46h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $62 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.19 · official $236.19 (match) · 515 history records