Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb242…d846 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$22 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$6
politics 22% −$1
world 19% −$1
sports 6% −$30
crypto 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 +7.3% -3.0% 50% 17% -9.2%
≤90d 14 -10.3% -18.8% 36% 14% -10.6%
all 45 -3.1% -12.3% 42% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 4% -10.0%
10% -20.7% 4% -18.6%
15% -28.4% 4% -26.5%
20% -35.4% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage400d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 68¢ 68¢ $121 $120 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 17 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $805 −$1 -0%
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next Jun 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 9-15? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 09 $16 +$7 +44%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 14 $13 −$13 -99%
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana May 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $53 $0 -0%
Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-04-17? Apr 29 $26 +$29 +113%
Will AZ win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 12? Mar 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Mar 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? Mar 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 January 19-25? Mar 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jan 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on January 5? Jan 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Vitorino Silva win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 December 15-21? Jan 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $116,000 on November 6? Dec 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 November 3-9? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Browns win the AFC Championship? Nov 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $68 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in September? Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $180 September 15-21? Oct 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will Verona win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Sep 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3700 August 11–17? Sep 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will MDG win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Jul 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jul 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Rubén Costas win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jul 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 30 $300 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 30 $290 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? May 30 $297 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 22 $312 $0 -0%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 22 $284 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? May 13 $308 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 68¢ $122 54m
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 57m
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $770 57m
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 58m
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $771 58m
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $768 58m
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $9 59m
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $805 59m
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next SELL No 99¢ $27 8d
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Facundo Acosta 69¢ $16 22d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 61¢ $13 33d
LoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY LGD Gaming 33¢ $24 34d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 49d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 49d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 49d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 49d
Will AZ win on 2026-04-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $22 61d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 63d
Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $16 63d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 63d
Will Brøndby IF win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 63d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $58 85d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 85d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 98d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 98d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $12 98d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $9 98d
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 January 19-25? BUY No 99¢ $10 147d
Will Solana dip to $80 January 19-25? BUY No 100¢ $15 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.10 · official $135.10 (match) · 111 history records