Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:20:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb244…9547 other 260 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 250L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$21
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 26% −$27
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$8
culture 4% −$5
world 2% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)260 / 260
History coverage142d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 260 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $64 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $528 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 20 $170 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $363 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $333 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $600 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $991 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $255 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $448 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $124 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $504 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $493 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $322 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $413 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $378 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $488 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $62 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $335 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $138 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $374 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $226 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $195 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $218 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $388 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $505 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $674 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $407 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $202 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 3h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 4h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 6h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 8h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 9h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 17h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $57 18h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 19h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 20h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 23h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $58 25h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $58 26h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $58 27h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 29h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 31h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $58 32h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $58 33h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 47h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1441 history records