Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb249…c6fc other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-2%) realized −$66 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$637now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$81
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$136
sports 10% +$80
crypto 2% −$12
economics 0% +$4
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -4.8% -13.9% 35% 32% -14.8%
≤30d 36 -4.0% -13.2% 39% 33% -15.1%
≤90d 36 -4.0% -13.2% 39% 33% -15.1%
all 36 -4.0% -13.2% 39% 33% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 33% -15.1%
10% -21.5% 25% -23.2%
15% -29.1% 25% -30.6%
20% -36.0% 22% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 61% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$637
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions19
Markets (closed)36 / 55
History coverage11d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $214 $252 +$38 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $88 $75 −$14 (-16%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $53 $47 −$6 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $20 −$8 (-29%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 21¢ 31¢ $9 $14 +$4 (+47%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? No 88¢ 88¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 85¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 89¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Anthropic 79¢ 71¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 70¢ 59¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? OpenAI 23¢ 29¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 61¢ 9¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 12¢ 16¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $22 +$100 +462%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $26 −$4 -17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 −$33 -73%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +135%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $81 +$9 +11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $11 +$4 +37%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $25 −$16 -62%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +287%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +66%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $92 +$71 +76%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -77%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $92 −$70 -76%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 −$11 -73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $644 +$92 +14%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$13 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 05 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $13 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 19h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $50 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 33h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 36h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 43h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $45 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 46h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $26 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 90¢ $22 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $637.02 · official $637.19 (match) · 239 history records