Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B2 0xb24c…eefe world 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,094 (-2%) realized −$2,456 · open −$12,638
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate68%70W / 33L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,935per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$175,880now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 55d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$19,635
politics 10% −$16,796
tech 9% +$3,145
other 9% +$1,136
crypto 9% −$1,782
finance 7% +$1,417
economics 1% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -4.6% -13.7% 70% 10% -8.5%
≤30d 53 -8.7% -17.4% 58% 17% -18.0%
≤90d 103 -3.8% -13.0% 68% 20% -15.2%
all 103 -3.8% -13.0% 68% 20% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 20% -15.2%
10% -21.3% 12% -23.3%
15% ← realistic here -28.9% 9% -30.8%
20% -35.9% 8% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$3,391) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$305 vs −$1,249 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$175,880
Realized−$2,456
Unrealized−$12,638
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses70 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions66
Markets (closed)103 / 167
History coverage55d
Avg bet$3,935
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 66 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 81¢ $25,000 $40,300 +$15,300 (+61%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $14,067 $14,977 +$910 (+6%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $9,731 $9,985 +$254 (+3%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $9,491 $9,985 +$494 (+5%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 19¢ $25,000 $9,700 −$15,300 (-61%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 72¢ $7,529 $7,150 −$379 (-5%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $6,830 $6,995 +$164 (+2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $6,481 $6,548 +$67 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $6,187 $6,396 +$209 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $4,790 $4,970 +$180 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $4,330 $4,275 −$55 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 84¢ $3,982 $4,175 +$193 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 94¢ 100¢ $3,748 $3,994 +$246 (+7%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $3,275 $3,300 +$25 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $3,008 $3,094 +$86 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,959 $2,979 +$20 (+1%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 86¢ 86¢ $2,580 $2,595 +$15 (+1%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $2,580 $2,580 +$0 (+0%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,481 $2,494 +$13 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 100¢ $2,137 $2,488 +$350 (+16%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $2,395 $2,415 +$20 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 56¢ $2,855 $2,240 −$615 (-22%)
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2,159 $2,184 +$25 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,982 $1,999 +$17 (+1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,457 $1,490 +$33 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 28 $3,788 +$84 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $446 +$77 +17%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $83 −$29 -34%
Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 27 $430 +$45 +10%
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 27 $995 +$5 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 26 $2,826 +$53 +2%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $225 −$39 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 26 $3,630 +$92 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 26 $544 −$177 -32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 25 $1,194 +$44 +4%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $891 −$170 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $23,128 −$17,551 -76%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $145 −$143 -99%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 13 $244 −$136 -56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $742 +$12 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $4,333 +$667 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $23,530 +$1,470 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $11,701 +$299 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $2,355 −$1,547 -66%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $512 +$3 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $7,816 −$506 -6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $486 +$8 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $438 +$4 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $463 −$95 -20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 09 $520 +$25 +5%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 09 $830 −$830 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 09 $1,680 −$1,680 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 09 $2,217 −$193 -9%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 09 $966 −$469 -48%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $12,331 −$5,380 -44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $23,870 +$2,085 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $4,767 −$1,842 -39%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $12,301 −$1,217 -10%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $800 +$25 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 05 $802 −$278 -35%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $917 −$472 -52%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $455 +$920 +202%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 02 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,231 +$1,264 +57%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11,823 −$2,736 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $28,608 +$2,485 +9%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $484 +$463 +96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3,770 −$969 -26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $961 +$39 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $3,756 +$244 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $6,933 +$147 +2%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,038 +$90 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,680 +$320 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $3,699 +$401 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $188 22m
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,325 2h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,084 2h
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 81¢ $8 3h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $5 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $166 3h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $755 3h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $435 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $107 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,281 6h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $365 6h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $144 6h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $59 6h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $13 6h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $13 6h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 68¢ $15 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 89¢ $76 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 89¢ $146 6h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $14 7h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 64¢ $24 7h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $92 7h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $92 7h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 63¢ $86 7h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 43¢ $5 8h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 43¢ $22 8h
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House SELL Yes 43¢ $27 8h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $95 8h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $973 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175,880.22 · official $175,880.23 (match) · 3000 history records