trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +5.3% | -4.8% | 100% | 0% | -4.8% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +5.3% | -4.8% | 100% | 0% | -4.8% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +5.3% | -4.8% | 100% | 0% | -4.8% |
| all | 25 | -26.6% | -33.6% | 24% | 16% | -23.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.6% | 16% | -23.8% |
| 10% | -40.0% | 16% | -31.1% |
| 15% | -45.8% | 16% | -37.8% |
| 20% | -51.1% | 12% | -43.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $78 | $74 | −$4 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025? | Jun 26 | $79 | +$4 | +5% |
| Will Crecimiento win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | Nov 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will SEED Latam win 2025 Uniswap Cup? | Nov 15 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? | Nov 14 | $111 | +$52 | +47% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2024? | Mar 11 | $109 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? | Dec 07 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Berachain airdrop in 2024? | Nov 22 | $99 | −$90 | -91% |
| Swell airdrop in 2024? | Oct 15 | $104 | −$4 | -4% |
| Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi? | Oct 13 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi? | Oct 08 | $14 | +$27 | +200% |
| Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi? | Oct 07 | $10 | +$13 | +127% |
| Will Donald Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Pennsylvania ra | Oct 07 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Mark Kelly be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Oct 07 | $1 | $0 | -50% |
| Will Andy Beshear be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Oct 07 | $1 | $0 | -50% |
| Will J.B. Pritzker be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Oct 07 | $1 | $0 | -50% |
| Will Gavin Newsom be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Oct 07 | $3 | −$2 | -67% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Oct 07 | $1 | $0 | -50% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Oct 07 | $3 | −$2 | -76% |
| Will Joe Biden be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Oct 07 | $1 | $0 | -50% |
| Will Kamala Harris be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Oct 07 | $1 | $0 | -50% |
| Will Hillary Clinton be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Oct 07 | $1 | −$1 | -86% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec | Oct 07 | $34 | −$8 | -23% |
| Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Sep 22 | $9 | −$6 | -67% |
| Will Josh Shapiro be D-nom for VP on Election Day? | Sep 18 | $1 | +$2 | +200% |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Sep 08 | $20 | −$7 | -33% |