Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:39:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb251…8c9b weather 130 markets active 16h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (284 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$23 (-8%) realized −$44 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%24W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day284.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (284 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -8.1% -16.9% 31% 31% -31.0%
≤30d 78 -8.1% -16.9% 31% 31% -31.0%
≤90d 78 -8.1% -16.9% 31% 31% -31.0%
all 78 -8.1% -16.9% 31% 31% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover284.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 31% -31.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 31% -37.6%
15% -32.1% 31% -43.6%
20% -38.7% 27% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses24 / 54
Open positions52
Markets (closed)78 / 130
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day284.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Yes 16¢ 100¢ $4 $26 +$22 (+515%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 53¢ $10 $15 +$6 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+588%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+428%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on June 17? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Yes 23¢ 38¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 17? Yes 38¢ 28¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 100¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+1011%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Yes 28¢ 99¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+255%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Yes 28¢ 35¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 37¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+48%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Yes 36¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 23¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+117%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 26¢ 9¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-65%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? No 59¢ 57¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17? Yes 34¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+49%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? Yes 37¢ 37¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $2 +$9 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +154%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $3 +$4 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 +$12 +540%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +381%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 +$6 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +963%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 31¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 59¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 15h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.71 · official $140.69 (match) · 370 history records