Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb254…ee4f world 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$179 (-13%) realized −$27 · open −$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate18%7W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$94
14 days−$56
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$53
finance 21% −$43
economics 12% −$9
other 5% −$74
politics 4% −$6
weather 2% −$21
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -34.4% -40.6% 20% 13% -23.4%
≤30d 31 +84.7% +67.1% 23% 19% -11.9%
≤90d 39 +46.8% +32.8% 18% 15% -18.1%
all 39 +46.8% +32.8% 18% 15% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.8% 15% -18.1%
10% +20.1% 15% -25.9%
15% +8.5% 13% -33.1%
20% -2.1% 13% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$11 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$328
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$152
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses7 / 32
Open positions12
Markets (closed)39 / 51
History coverage33d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? No 31¢ 31¢ $115 $115 +$0 (+0%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $68 $45 −$23 (-34%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $41 $36 −$5 (-13%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 8¢ 8¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-6%)
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $98 $20 −$78 (-80%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $20 $17 −$2 (-12%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $24 $17 −$7 (-29%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $23 $13 −$10 (-42%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $28 $5 −$23 (-82%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-56%)
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Jun 17 $2 $0 -19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $249 −$38 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $70 −$68 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$13 -66%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $166 −$97 -59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $51 +$90 +176%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$5 -58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $25 +$54 +217%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +8%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $2 +$50 +2332%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 30 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 25? May 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 24 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 24 $54 +$28 +51%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 22 $2 +$52 +2502%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 16 $47 −$45 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 15? May 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 26m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $56 49m
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 31¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY No 31¢ $116 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $2 3h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $1 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 8¢ $17 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 8¢ $16 8h
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 8h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $25 9h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $65 15h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 15h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 15h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 15h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 16h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 17h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 17h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 18h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 18h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 19h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $328.34 · official $328.34 (match) · 152 history records