Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B2 0xb25e…a93b weather 469 markets active 1d ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$416 (+3%) realized +$416 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%265W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$86
14 days+$319
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$579
crypto 2% −$304
sports 1% +$26
other 1% +$9
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -15.7% -23.7% 46% 40% -0.4%
≤30d 234 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 40% -6.9%
≤90d 405 +12.5% +1.8% 57% 40% -6.4%
all 469 +8.0% -2.3% 57% 41% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.3% 41% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 27% -18.0%
15% -20.2% 19% -25.9%
20% -28.0% 14% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$416
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses265 / 204
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)469 / 469
History coverage149d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 469 Trades
no open positions (113 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 +$129 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$18 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $57 −$55 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $104 −$10 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $58 +$102 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $75 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $48 −$46 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $55 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$7 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 +$7 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $13 +$11 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 +$31 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $154 +$18 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 08 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 +$2 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $65 +$103 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $61 +$72 +118%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $53 −$7 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $73 +$10 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $91 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $57 −$56 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $193 +$127 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $43 −$38 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $13 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 72¢ $7 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 31h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 41h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 41h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $90 42h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 53¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 53¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 53¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 53¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 39¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 44¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 75¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 75¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 75¢ $52 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3057 history records