Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B2
0xb260…715a
crypto · 696 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$1,640 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,627 · open +$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,172
Realized+$1,627
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses385 / 324
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions25
Markets (closed)709 / 696
History coverage39d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day76.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 25 History 709 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,568
7 days−$1,286
14 days−$429
30 days+$947
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $393 $404 +$11 (+3%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 99¢ 99¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 91¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? No 95¢ 97¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 95¢ 95¢ $65 $65 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $61 $55 −$6 (-10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $57 $52 −$4 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $25 $45 +$20 (+81%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? Yes 89¢ 98¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+10%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? No 97¢ 98¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will MrBeast say "Island" during his next YouTube video? No 89¢ 93¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $34 $21 −$14 (-41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-17%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 95¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 10¢ 31¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+209%)
Will MrBeast say "Donate" or "Donated" during his next YouTube video? No 77¢ 50¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 52¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 14¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $82 −$101 -123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$95 -1746%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $50 −$189 -378%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$104 -2086%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +26%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 12 $75 +$30 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 58% +$3,397
crypto 20% −$140
world 15% +$107
sports 6% −$128
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 0m
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 93¢ $93 0m
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 9m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 11m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 21m
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 21m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 23m
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $8 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $12 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 48m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 96¢ $20 56m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 82¢ $5 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 95¢ $10 1h
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 81¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -34.6% -40.8% 44% 26% -13.2%
≤30d 394 -16.9% -24.8% 56% 38% -8.1%
≤90d 709 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 41% -7.8%
all 709 -14.6% -22.7% 54% 41% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover76.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.7% 41% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -30.1% 35% -16.7%
15% -36.9% 29% -24.7%
20% -43.1% 22% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,171.79 · official $1,171.79 (match) · 3500 history records