Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B2 0xb261…6f3e other 55 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$139 (+20%) realized +$133 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$239now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$84
sports 36% +$39
crypto 3% +$3
world 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +38.2% +25.0% 62% 52% +15.6%
≤30d 29 +38.2% +25.0% 62% 52% +15.6%
≤90d 29 +38.2% +25.0% 62% 52% +15.6%
all 29 +38.2% +25.0% 62% 52% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.0% 52% +15.6%
10% +13.0% 41% +4.5%
15% +2.1% 34% -5.6%
20% -7.9% 31% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$239
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions24
Markets (closed)29 / 55
History coverage7d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+49%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 74¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$31 +602%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -25%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 −$4 -21%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$46 +89%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 +$12 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$2 -24%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$4 +22%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$42 +413%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$18 +85%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 3h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 3h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 3h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $10 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 21¢ $14 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 19h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 23¢ $22 19h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 10¢ $10 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 72¢ $11 34h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 34h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $8 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 2d
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $16 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 56¢ $17 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $15 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 29¢ $35 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $239.41 · official $239.10 (match) · 90 history records