Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb267…5f55 sports 273 markets active 2h ago coverage 624d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,600 (+1%) realized +$1,614 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%105W / 148L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$556per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1,158est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$293
7 days+$189
14 days+$554
30 days+$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$3,888
crypto 23% −$2,718
other 11% +$917
world 6% −$387
finance 2% −$434
weather 0% −$59
politics 0% −$2
tech 0% +$5
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -12.9% -21.2% 44% 44% -1.5%
≤30d 27 +1.6% -8.0% 56% 52% -1.6%
≤90d 229 -18.6% -26.3% 39% 31% -8.1%
all 253 -14.7% -22.8% 42% 33% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 33% -8.2%
10% -30.2% 27% -17.0%
15% -36.9% 22% -25.0%
20% -43.1% 17% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$233 vs −$162 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

624d coverage
Net worth$1,288
Realized+$1,614
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses105 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,158
Open positions17
Markets (closed)253 / 273
History coverage624d
Avg bet$556
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $262 $277 +$14 (+5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $208 $205 −$4 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $194 $193 −$1 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $177 $176 −$1 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $78 $74 −$4 (-6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $64 $58 −$6 (-9%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $16 −$2 (-8%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 63¢ 74¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 60¢ 44¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 11¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-78%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes $5 $0 −$4 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $328 +$293 +90%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 +$19 +37%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $102 −$98 -95%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $397 −$294 -74%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 13 $227 −$224 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $240 −$240 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $400 +$600 +150%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $304 +$232 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $352 +$80 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $255 −$55 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $235 +$155 +66%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 11 $159 +$141 +89%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $74 +$86 +117%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $252 −$43 -17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$4 +44%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $151 −$149 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $185 +$125 +67%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 27 $101 +$77 +76%
Will MrBeast hit 491 million subscribers by June 30? May 26 $10 $0 +5%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 23 $58 −$57 -99%
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22? May 23 $10 +$2 +18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 22 $58 −$57 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 22 $44 +$56 +129%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 21 $66 −$65 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 21 $68 +$44 +65%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 19 $54 −$53 -99%
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5 May 19 $49 +$51 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $50 +$50 +101%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $76 −$3 -3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 18 $69 −$3 -5%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $62 +$38 +62%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 17 $93 −$92 -99%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $60 −$59 -99%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 17 $48 +$52 +109%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $82 +$88 +107%
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 May 16 $53 −$52 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $10 $0 +2%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 May 16 $88 +$82 +93%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Spread: CD Castellón (-1.5) May 15 $56 −$55 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) May 15 $68 +$32 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $130 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $80 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $182 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $199 4h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 52¢ $328 15h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $78 15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $125 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $114 15h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $52 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $66 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $69 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $163 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $166 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $214 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $269 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Arge BUY $206 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $153 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $156 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $35 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $123 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $213 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $256 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $96 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,287.85 · official $1,287.95 (match) · 1363 history records