Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb26a…02a6 crypto 86 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-3%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate78%67W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 48% -13.5%
≤30d 86 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 48% -13.5%
≤90d 86 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 48% -13.5%
all 86 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 48% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 48% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 22% -21.7%
15% -30.1% 9% -29.3%
20% -37.0% 3% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses67 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage5d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 175 history records