Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:07:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B2 0xb26c…0eb0 world 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 213d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,139 (-3%) realized −$12,995 · open +$1,856
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate66%180W / 93L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,225per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$18,873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$1,106
14 days−$1,991
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$13,053
other 7% −$11,999
tech 4% −$12,663
crypto 4% +$1,384
economics 1% −$49
finance 1% +$481
sports 1% −$266
politics 1% −$1,171
weather 0% +$415
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.9% -26.7% 58% 50% -21.0%
≤30d 40 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 45% -9.4%
≤90d 136 +6.9% -3.3% 64% 51% +0.0%
all 273 +4.3% -5.7% 66% 50% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.7% 50% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.7% 31% -21.1%
15% -22.9% 21% -28.7%
20% -30.5% 13% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,305) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$655 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$18,873
Realized−$12,995
Unrealized+$1,856
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses180 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions35
Markets (closed)273 / 310
History coverage213d ⚠
Avg bet$1,225
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 63¢ 71¢ $4,812 $5,440 +$628 (+13%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 67¢ 86¢ $3,507 $4,496 +$989 (+28%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 59¢ $1,521 $1,823 +$302 (+20%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? No 76¢ 87¢ $1,032 $1,183 +$151 (+15%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $1,000 $1,146 +$146 (+15%)
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $615 $605 −$10 (-2%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? No 62¢ 67¢ $550 $598 +$49 (+9%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $450 $460 +$10 (+2%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $376 $440 +$64 (+17%)
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $508 $415 −$93 (-18%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $359 $266 −$93 (-26%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Yes 42¢ 26¢ $420 $260 −$160 (-38%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $247 $212 −$35 (-14%)
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $246 $203 −$43 (-17%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 76¢ 92¢ $152 $185 +$33 (+22%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 68¢ $184 $177 −$7 (-4%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 72¢ 88¢ $144 $177 +$33 (+23%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $287 $168 −$120 (-42%)
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $121 $125 +$4 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 46¢ $102 $113 +$11 (+11%)
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? Yes 25¢ 32¢ $72 $92 +$21 (+29%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? No 72¢ 72¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30? No 74¢ 99¢ $37 $50 +$13 (+34%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $34 $28 −$6 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$26 +25%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 15 $1,105 −$1,091 -99%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $418 +$14 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $2,000 +$387 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 13 $2,873 +$870 +30%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $193 +$97 +50%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,505 −$881 -58%
Reppo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $518 −$518 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +35%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $134 +$178 +133%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $658 −$48 -7%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,145 −$1,145 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $183 −$183 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10,130 +$314 +3%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,423 +$216 +15%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31? Jun 01 $1,112 +$186 +17%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $214 −$131 -61%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31? Jun 01 $433 −$433 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $84 +$16 +19%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $578 +$63 +11%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Jun 01 $234 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? Jun 01 $2,607 +$429 +16%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31? Jun 01 $1,542 +$748 +48%
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $895 +$1 +0%
Will Russia enter Borova by May 31? Jun 01 $1,212 +$1,497 +124%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $297 +$202 +68%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? May 30 $257 +$79 +31%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $8,642 −$981 -11%
Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31, 2026? May 29 $329 +$4 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $300 −$32 -11%
UFC Fight Night: Jake Matthews vs. Muslim Salikhov (Welterweight, Prel May 27 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 24 $242 +$256 +106%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 22 $428 +$181 +42%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by May 31? May 21 $482 −$191 -40%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? May 21 $811 −$41 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $164 +$6 +3%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? May 16 $33 +$67 +203%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 12 $1,363 +$384 +28%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $138 +$62 +45%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30? May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by April 30? May 01 $38 −$12 -31%
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by April 30? May 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by April 30? May 01 $0 +$1 +223%
Will Russia enter Myrne by April 30, 2026? May 01 $80 −$9 -12%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by April 30? May 01 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 70¢ $184 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 5h
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 12h
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 13h
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 13h
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $615 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $101 23h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $87 42h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 76¢ $143 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $11 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 76¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $19 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $94 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $695 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $432 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $418 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 72¢ $141 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $19 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 72¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $81 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $330 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 77¢ $15 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $406 3d
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $16 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $225 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $134 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,872.64 · official $18,865.24 (match) · 3500 history records