Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:38:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B2 0xb26d…b000 sports 166 markets active 2d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$157 (-7%) realized −$159 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%84W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$19
14 days−$81
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$159
world 5% −$7
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$4
other 0% $0
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +12.9% +2.1% 64% 64% +2.8%
≤30d 58 -7.4% -16.2% 57% 47% -15.4%
≤90d 138 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 49% -13.3%
all 159 -11.2% -19.6% 53% 45% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 45% -16.5%
10% -27.3% 42% -24.5%
15% -34.3% 38% -31.8%
20% -40.8% 32% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$13 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses84 / 75
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions7
Markets (closed)159 / 166
History coverage121d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 70¢ 87¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 42¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $10 +$9 +86%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $7 +$6 +90%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 13 $10 +$7 +73%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $20 +$16 +79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $6 +$1 +24%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Arantxa Rus vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 05 $10 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 05 $10 +$3 +33%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 05 $20 +$14 +67%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Jun 05 $30 +$21 +68%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $20 +$15 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 27 $20 +$20 +97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 27 $20 +$24 +119%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 23 $8 −$8 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 23 $11 $0 +0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $10 +$7 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 23 $10 +$7 +73%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 23 $10 +$7 +73%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $10 +$8 +83%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 23 $10 +$9 +90%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 23 $10 +$9 +93%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 23 $10 +$9 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 52¢ $7 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $10 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 57¢ $10 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $10 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 51¢ $10 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $20 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $10 9d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins BUY Tampa Bay Rays 57¢ $10 9d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ $10 9d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $10 9d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $10 9d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $10 9d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 61¢ $10 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 55¢ $20 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $20 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $20 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $20 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 67¢ $40 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 19d
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Arantxa Rus vs Anastasia Tikhonova BUY Arantxa Rus 51¢ $10 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $20 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 19d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $20 19d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 57¢ $8 23d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 58¢ $10 23d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 56¢ $20 23d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 57¢ $20 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.34 · official $51.34 (match) · 292 history records