Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:21:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb26d…73f7 weather 845 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$441 (+3%) realized +$439 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate68%571W / 270L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day82.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days+$293
14 days+$334
30 days+$485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$558
world 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 +10.2% -0.3% 70% 27% -3.5%
≤30d 680 +4.6% -5.4% 67% 25% -6.1%
≤90d 841 +3.7% -6.2% 68% 25% -6.0%
all 841 +3.7% -6.2% 68% 25% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 25% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 13% -15.0%
15% -23.4% 8% -23.2%
20% -30.9% 6% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$439
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses571 / 270
Open positions4
Markets (closed)841 / 845
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day82.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 841 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? No 96¢ 98¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 2? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $103 −$6 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +204%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $261 +$37 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $68 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 14 $59 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $74 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $89 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +117%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $405 +$29 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $256 +$49 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +361%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 14? Jun 14 $107 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $34 +$8 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $180 +$29 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $250 +$22 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$3 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 6m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $11 11m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 5¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 33m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 67¢ $10 41m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 77¢ $4 46m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 82¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 83¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $141 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 84¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 86¢ $16 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 90¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $13 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $37 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? SELL No 89¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $4 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.92 · official $40.69 (match) · 3500 history records