Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
B2 0xb26e…43b0 world 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$57 (+3%) realized +$55 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$478now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$58
other 38% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +22.3% +10.6% 100% 67% -1.4%
≤30d 6 +11.1% +0.5% 67% 33% -5.8%
≤90d 6 +11.1% +0.5% 67% 33% -5.8%
all 6 +11.1% +0.5% 67% 33% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 33% -5.8%
10% -9.1% 17% -14.8%
15% -17.9% 17% -23.0%
20% -25.9% 17% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×12.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×51.06 per $1 lost it wins $51.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$478
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage13d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $475 $478 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US military draft authorized in 2026? Jun 28 $475 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? Jun 26 $82 +$9 +11%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 26 $86 +$48 +56%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 16 $227 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $241 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $477.50 · official $475.00 (match) · 18 history records