Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb275…c76f sports 492 markets active 4d ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,221 (+5%) realized +$10,221 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%256W / 236L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$179
14 days−$179
30 days−$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$10,203
other 0% −$82
world 0% +$2
politics 0% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +34.8% +22.0% 53% 53% -26.9%
≤30d 23 +11.9% +1.2% 48% 48% -35.1%
≤90d 72 -13.8% -22.0% 47% 38% -8.2%
all 492 -9.2% -17.9% 52% 49% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 49% -4.9%
10% -25.7% 44% -14.0%
15% -32.9% 35% -22.3%
20% -39.5% 26% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$309 vs −$292 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses256 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)492 / 492
History coverage151d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 492 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $200 −$198 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $111 +$89 +80%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 +$2 +63%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $32 −$30 -94%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $112 −$80 -72%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $67 −$65 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $54 +$12 +23%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $49 +$6 +12%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $125 −$124 -99%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $33 +$290 +867%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $27 +$7 +24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $111 −$85 -76%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $198 −$195 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 31 $143 −$142 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 +$109 +107%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $102 +$103 +100%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $133 −$131 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $93 +$40 +43%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) Apr 23 $338 −$333 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 23 $338 −$333 -99%
Heat vs. Pacers: O/U 247.5 Apr 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Apr 22 $109 −$109 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 22 $113 −$110 -98%
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) Mar 29 $10 +$3 +31%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 29 $100 +$9 +9%
Bulls vs. Thunder Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Nets vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5 Mar 29 $169 −$169 -100%
Pelicans vs. Raptors: O/U 228.5 Mar 28 $133 +$36 +27%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 28 $139 −$71 -51%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $513 −$441 -86%
Dota 2: Winter Bear vs Level UP (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Mar 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Thunder vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 Mar 27 $598 −$598 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 26 $540 +$58 +11%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $457 +$82 +18%
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula Mar 25 $33 +$19 +56%
Dubrovnik: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Suzan Lamens Mar 25 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playof Mar 25 $31 +$2 +6%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 25 $23 +$4 +17%
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs The QUBE Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Mar 25 $27 +$4 +16%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs OG (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 25 $23 $0 +2%
Dubrovnik: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Veronika Erjavec Mar 25 $1,610 −$951 -59%
Dubrovnik: Tamara Zidansek vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Mar 25 $636 +$285 +45%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Mar 25 $13,169 −$13,169 -100%
Dubrovnik: Mayar Sherif vs Mia Ristic Mar 25 $365 −$181 -49%
Alicante: Lloyd Harris vs Marco Cecchinato Mar 25 $159 −$137 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $200 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 72¢ $200 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $111 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $7 4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $5 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $5 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 60¢ $3 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil $2 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $32 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 18¢ $32 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 61¢ $112 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 19¢ $67 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $67 5d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 80¢ $54 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 99¢ $54 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 88¢ $49 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $125 5d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 80¢ $324 5d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States $33 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $27 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $26 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $111 6d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 48¢ $198 18d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY RED Canids 62¢ $101 18d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $143 18d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 93¢ $211 18d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Spurs 60¢ $205 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1191 history records