Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb276…6514 crypto 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$55 (-2%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%26W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$264
sports 14% −$156
other 12% −$110
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 38% -10.2%
≤30d 69 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 38% -10.2%
≤90d 69 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 38% -10.2%
all 69 -13.3% -21.6% 38% 38% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 38% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 35% -18.8%
15% -35.9% 33% -26.7%
20% -42.2% 30% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$27 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses26 / 43
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage3d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$59 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$36 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$87 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $75 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$50 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$84 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$43 +83%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$4 -28%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$68 +663%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$44 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$95 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$128 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$40 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $62 +$44 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $111 −$110 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $191 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $104 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $104 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $75 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $53 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $53 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $51 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $52 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $137 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 11h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Austria 24¢ $11 11h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 32¢ $15 11h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $20 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.57 · official $49.57 (match) · 131 history records