Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

B2 0xb276…8720 other 13 markets active 1d ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,401 (+21%) realized +$1,401 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%8W / 5L

Drawdown70%max

Avg bet$523per market

Trades / day8.7pace

Fees−$43est.

Kalshi-fit31%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+4.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+15.4%	+4.4%	62%	62%	+7.6%
≤30d	13	+15.4%	+4.4%	62%	62%	+7.6%
≤90d	13	+15.4%	+4.4%	62%	62%	+7.6%
all	13	+15.4%	+4.4%	62%	62%	+7.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.7 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+4.4%	62%	+7.6%
10% ← realistic here	-5.6%	62%	-2.7%
15%	-14.7%	62%	-12.1%
20%	-23.1%	46%	-20.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 41% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +15% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +57% → late -21% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$461 vs −$482 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$1,401

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses8 / 5

Est. fees paid−$43

Open positions0

Markets (closed)13 / 13

History coverage2d

Avg bet$523

Trades / day8.7

Drawdown70%

Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 13 Trades

no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$163	−$158	-97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$552	+$306	+56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$615	−$600	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$514	+$677	+132%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$511	+$351	+69%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$358	−$350	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 17	$567	−$550	-97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 17	$770	−$750	-97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$515	+$846	+164%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$743	+$414	+56%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 17	$474	+$651	+137%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$510	+$215	+42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$510	+$225	+44%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$163	33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$42	41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	19¢	$103	41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$511	43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$512	43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$514	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	16¢	$104	2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	11¢	$52	2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	30¢	$258	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$1,361	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	69¢	$255	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$511	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	36¢	$515	2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	29¢	$516	2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	52¢	$512	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,157	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	49¢	$234	3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$509	3d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	41¢	$474	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$510	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	68¢	$510	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records