Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B2 0xb27d…3cc3 sports 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,962 (+7%) realized +$1,963 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%81W / 92L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$357est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$647
14 days+$781
30 days+$1,320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,731
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +13.0% +2.2% 27% 27% +9.2%
≤30d 107 +12.3% +1.6% 44% 44% +0.8%
≤90d 173 +3.4% -6.4% 47% 46% -4.0%
all 173 +3.4% -6.4% 47% 46% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 46% -4.0%
10% -15.4% 44% -13.2%
15% -23.6% 42% -21.6%
20% -31.0% 29% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$133 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$1,963
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses81 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$357
Open positions1
Markets (closed)173 / 148
History coverage43d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 41¢ 40¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte (BO5) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs R2 Esports Club - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: magic vs K27 (BO5) - PGL Astana: European Closed Quali Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FOKUS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs FaZe (+1.5) Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Jun 20 $0 $0 —%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $127 +$96 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $102 +$125 +123%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $152 +$174 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$243 +474%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $243 +$82 +34%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $121 −$104 -85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $203 +$231 +114%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $503 +$114 +23%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 +$76 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $202 +$92 +46%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $152 +$94 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $132 −$130 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$28 -28%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$63 +62%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $62 −$61 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $122 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $223 18h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $227 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 56¢ $127 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $61 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $51 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $325 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $152 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $6 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $7 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $7 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $26 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $14 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $27 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $22 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $15 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $22 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $40 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $32 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $14 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $8 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 9¢ $18 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $121 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $434 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL Vitality 100¢ $617 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $317 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 63¢ $202 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.54 · official $118.54 (match) · 320 history records