trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 5 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 20% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 23 | -15.4% | -23.4% | 48% | 22% | -10.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.4% | 22% | -10.8% |
| 10% | -30.7% | 13% | -19.3% |
| 15% | -37.4% | 4% | -27.1% |
| 20% | -43.6% | 4% | -34.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $150 | $150 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $150 | $150 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $150 | $150 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? | Yes | 78¢ | 58¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-26%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | May 04 | $400 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 04 | $200 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? | May 04 | $200 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Apr 04 | $132 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Apr 04 | $104 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Robinhood launch stock tokens in the US before 2026? | Feb 24 | $1 | $0 | +19% |
| Will Spark launch a token by December 31? | Feb 24 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Dec 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $440b on October 31? | Nov 12 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Las Vegas Sands (LVS) beat quarterly earnings? | Oct 29 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Jean Smart win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy | Oct 09 | $1 | $0 | +27% |
| Christian Democratic Party (KrF) wins 4% or more of vote in Norwegian | Oct 09 | $2 | +$1 | +70% |
| Baldoni x Lively lawsuit dismissed before July? | Jul 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Germany declare a state of emergency in February? | May 24 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will $TRUMP memecoin creator sell by Sunday? | Feb 21 | $2 | $0 | +11% |
| Will Speed sign deal to fight Jake Paul this week? | Jan 18 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? | Nov 22 | $102 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02? | Nov 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Israel target an Iranian nuclear facility? | Oct 29 | $5 | $0 | +3% |
| Ethena crash in 2024? | Oct 02 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will there be 44 or more combined points scored? | Oct 02 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS by August 15? | Sep 15 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Aug 04 | $86 | −$15 | -17% |