Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:08:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B2 0xb283…9e52 weather 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate90%102W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$22
sports 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 29 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 89 -1.0% -10.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 113 -1.6% -11.0% 90% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.2%
10% -19.5% 4% -17.9%
15% -27.3% 3% -25.8%
20% -34.4% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses102 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage104d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? No 100¢ 99¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $58 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 10 Jun 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 9? Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 4? Jun 07 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on June 3? Jun 04 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 2? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 1? Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 31? Jun 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on May 30? May 31 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 29? May 30 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on May 28? May 29 $57 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 27? May 28 $47 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 26? May 27 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on May 25? May 26 $56 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 24? May 25 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on May 23? May 24 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on May 22? May 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 17? May 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 16? May 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 15? May 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 14? May 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C or higher on May 12 May 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 11? May 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C or below on May 10? May 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on May 9? May 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on May 8? May 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C or below on May 7? May 08 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 6? May 07 $56 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 6°C or below on May 5? May 06 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on May 4? May 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on May 3? May 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C or higher on May 2? May 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C or higher on May 1? May 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 30 May 01 $56 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $58 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $6 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $58 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $58 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $58 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $58 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $58 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $58 8d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $58 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 11 BUY No 100¢ $58 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C or higher on June 10 BUY No 100¢ $57 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $57 12d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $57 13d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $57 14d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $57 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $57 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $57 19d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $57 19d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $57 20d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $57 22d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $57 23d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $57 24d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $47 25d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $56 26d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $56 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $56 28d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $56 29d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.62 · official $57.62 (match) · 233 history records