Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B2 0xb285…0918 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 41L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$396per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$9
world 26% −$4
politics 21% −$18
sports 6% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 41 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$868) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage85d
Avg bet$396
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 18 $27 $0 -0%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 15 $74 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,180 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,190 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $54 $0 -0%
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $1,257 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 14 $1,230 −$1 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will Dominik Szoboszlai win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 13 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,159 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 May 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $879 −$14 -2%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Lee Un-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election? May 21 $847 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? May 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $857 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $35 $0 -1%
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $868 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $843 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $82 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control Apr 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Apr 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $113 $0 -0%
Will Germany be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? Mar 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $64 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? Mar 24 $171 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 24 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $78 1h
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $66 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $13 2h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $16 2h
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $19 2h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $22 2d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $31 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $74 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,178 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,114 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $21 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,186 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $25 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,158 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 3d
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $910 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $278 3d
Will Marcus Thuram be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,190 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 3d
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,256 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 128 history records