Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B2 0xb285…68d3 crypto 459 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$73,812 (-22%) realized −$72,625 · open −$1,187
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate66%294W / 152L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$744per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$179est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$17,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$381
7 days−$86,401
14 days−$85,282
30 days−$80,654
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$4,426
other 31% −$67,943
sports 12% −$2,690
politics 8% −$231
world 6% +$699
tech 1% −$118
economics 0% −$99
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 212 -33.1% -39.5% 46% 33% -66.8%
≤30d 347 -10.4% -18.9% 62% 43% -48.4%
≤90d 423 -5.6% -14.6% 65% 44% -34.6%
all 446 -5.6% -14.6% 66% 43% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 43% -30.1%
10% -22.8% 31% -36.8%
15% -30.2% 21% -42.9%
20% -37.1% 14% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$503) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$665 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$17,573
Realized−$72,625
Unrealized−$1,187
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses294 / 152
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$179
Open positions12
Markets (closed)446 / 459
History coverage238d
Avg bet$744
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $5,000 $5,040 +$40 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,500 $3,590 +$90 (+3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 86¢ $3,704 $3,422 −$282 (-8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 36¢ 24¢ $3,422 $2,326 −$1,096 (-32%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $2,000 $1,977 −$23 (-1%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 74¢ 89¢ $300 $361 +$61 (+20%)
Spread: England (-2.5) Croatia 77¢ 94¢ $200 $243 +$43 (+21%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 100¢ $200 $222 +$22 (+11%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 87¢ 86¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $34 $16 −$18 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$131 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $145 +$174 +120%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $303 +$114 +38%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $501 +$54 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $158 +$42 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$6 +59%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$43 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $301 +$25 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$24 +24%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $302 +$59 +20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $91 +$109 +120%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $143 +$57 +40%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $303 +$126 +42%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $401 −$360 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $921 +$226 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $608 −$600 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $608 −$17 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $305 −$63 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$61 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 +$1 +23%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $202 +$92 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $617 +$399 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $314 +$157 +50%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $301 +$26 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $336 +$64 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -94%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $140 +$60 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $114 +$86 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $261 +$39 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $201 +$18 +9%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $246 +$54 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $93 +$7 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 87¢ $201 16m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $201 17m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 77¢ $201 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $303 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 63¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $134 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 90¢ $501 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 79¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $101 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,573.17 · official $17,573.17 (match) · 2002 history records